Problems of the World in 20 minutes

Judd Buchanan introduced Jeremy Kinsman.  Jeremy was educated at Princeton University  and the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris. He was Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN in the 70's and served as a Canadian Ambassador for 15 years.  He was the Canadian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom  (2000–2002) and the Canadian Ambassador to the European Union (2002–2006). More recently he has been the resident international scholar at Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and an advisor to Justin Trudeau.

 

Kinsman started his talk by reminding us that we are all blessed to be living here but that the world is full of angry, disappointed people.  On June 23, the vote on whether the UK will remain in the EU will be the biggest game-changer since the fall of the Berlin Wall.  The EU was supposed to promote co-operation and end war. 

 

In Canada we don't have the same level of discontent that exists in the UK and the USA.  There they experience generalized distrust.  People are looking for assurance that the government is competent to manage their affairs. There is a lot of anti big business sentiment.  Society didn't pay enough attention to the Occupy Movement in Canada and to the Tea Party Movement in the USA where people were reacting to unfairness.

 

In the UK there is a belief that there are just too many people and that the EU is imposing too much change.  We Canadians can't understand their issues because we don't have the same problems with immigration.  In the EU , the "immigration crisis" is really refugees and economic migrants.  The referendum is becoming about identity. Polling is increasingly unreliable.  Bookies give 30% chance for separation. Kinsman predicts that the UK will vote to remain and that the difference will be in the Scottish vote. The EU is the biggest economy in the world and the UK is 1/6 of that. 44% of British exports are to the EU.  The UK will not be able to negotiate trade agreements in 2 years and would have to add tariffs.  It is a campaign of Head vs Heart.  Economic impacts of separation would be devastating but there is fear of being overrun by immigrants.  It is important for the EU to have the UK as it is the largest economy and the banking centre. 

 

Canada is committed to a relationship with the EU.  Even without the UK the EU is a very important market for Canada.  Canada's main priority is the USA.  Basically we are the same people with the same values.  Regional differences are greater than international differences.  70% of Canadians favour a Democrat win in the US election.  To build the North American community a Democrat win is an advantage. 

 

If the Republicans win and the UK leaves it will be a whole different ball game. 

 

Doug Lunam thanked Mr. Kinsman and gave him a card and a gift of sight on his behalf.